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Shaking the trees on PASHealth (OTCBB: PASO) PDF Print E-mail
paso,patient access solutions,pashealth,otcbb:paso
ORIGINAL ALERT INFO :
ALERT DATE & PRICE: 07/07/08 @ $.97
ALERT EMAIL: CLICK HERE
CURRENT PRICE:
$.88
CURRENT % ROI: +-9.28%
COMPANY CONTACT INFO:
PATIENT ACCESS SOLUTIONS, INC.
245 Marcus Blvd.
Hauppauge, NY 11788
Phone: (866) 280-1156
Fax: (631) 233-3739
Email: This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
Web: www.pashealth.com
Today was a very volatile day of trading for PASHealth (OTCBB: PASO) as the stock opened up at $1.02 and then shortly after, traded to a low of $.79 a share. By the end of the day, it climbed back to close at $.88.

When everything was said and done, there was around $1,678,000 worth of stock that traded hands and the stock closed down -9.28% for the day.

This is what we refer to as shaking the trees on a stock. There are a bunch of traders that like to get in a stock during the day and flip it to make a quick buck and then move on to the next trade.

There is nothing wrong with that, except it can hurt a stock in the short-term. Today we saw an example of just that.

There is something positive happening here that many people might not be able to see, because the stock closed down -9.28% today. When the traders move on to their next deal, this leaves real investors as shareholders of the company, which is exactly what we want. The tree get’s shaken and the traders leave and look for something else to feed on.

Even if the stock gets sold down to lower levels, that shouldn’t matter to a long-term investor. If you missed the email that was sent out this morning, you will know that the prospects for this company are better than they were when we shot the Stockumentary.

When we shot the Stockumentary, they were only doing one pilot program with Americare. Now they currently have three pilot programs going on with three major Home Healthcare Agencies, with a total of 35,000 nurses. These are some very serious players.

Like I said in the email this morning, if they just sell 5,000 licenses out of the possible 35,000, that would equate to $54,000,000 in gross revenue for the company.

The corporate structure shows 43.85M shares outstanding - let’s just call it 44M. At the current price, that gives them a $39M market cap.

Let’s go over the revenue model for PASHealth again.

Anytime PASHealth signs up a new account, the term is for 36 months and the average cost per month for that license is around $300. This brings in an average of $10,800 to the company for the length of the lease term.

So if they do achieve 5,000 licenses, this totals $54,000,000 in gross revenue. The company expects to operate at a 37% net income margin and has 44M shares issued and outstanding.

Now let’s get into the numbers:

5,000 licenses x $10,800 = $54,000,000 over 36 months
$54,000,000 / 3 (years) = $18,000,000 per year in gross revenue
$18,000,000 x .37 (margin) = $6,660,000 per year in net income
$6,660,000 / 44,000,000 shares = 0.1514 (est EPS in the first 12 months)
0.1514 x 15.5 (industry avg p/e multiple) = $2.3461 share price

So does this mean anything to the bottom line? They still haven’t signed any contracts to bring in the real money, right?

In the press release put out this morning, Mr. Weitzberg said the following:

“We are currently beginning contract discussions with one of the major Home Healthcare Agencies.”

They already have $1,100,000 in accrued revenue from one of their other products (medical payment processing solution), so they have revenue and they are already situated in 15 hospitals around the US.

What I am referring to is the BIG FISH. If one of these contracts hits, it could mean the company could go AMEX or NASDAQ Small Cap in short order.

REMINDER:
The founder of one of the major Home Healthcare Agencies liked their DPAS product so much, that he became a shareholder of the company.

So this is what makes me excited from an investment standpoint.

Oh and one other thing that I almost forgot to mention - 800,000 DVD’s will be landing in doctor's mailboxes and investor's mailboxes starting tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week.


 


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